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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

U.S. Economy
The National Association of Realtors said that its index of pending home sales was up .1% in May and up 5.7% from a year ago, the fourth consecutive month of positive gain.

The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing increased from 42.8 to 44.8 in June, still a sign of contraction. The December 2010 eurodollars were up .065 at 97.76.

The private firm, ADP Employer Services, predicted that tomorrow's unemployment report will show that 473,000 jobs were lost in June.

The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was down .9% in May and down 11.6% from a year ago.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell to 444.8 last week, the lowest in seven months.

Ford said that its U.S. vehicle sales were down 10.7% in June from a year ago, not as bad as expected.

There are reports that the U.S. Treasury will expand its foreclosure prevention program to include homeowners with as much as -25% equity. September lumber was down $1.80 at $210.00.

Grains and Cotton
November soybeans jumped up 34.5 cents to $10.155, one day after the USDA said that there were 77.5 million acres of soybeans planted this year, less than expected. Also, the USDA said that yesterday's sale of 113,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China was for 2008-2009; not 2009-2010, as reported.

December corn ended up 2 cents at $3.692 after closing limit-down yesterday with favorable growing weather expected in the U.S. this week.

October cotton finished up its 3-cent daily limit at 58.63 with hopes that demand in China will remain strong.

Livestock
October hogs closed up .87 at 56.92, the third day higher after Friday's contract low.

October cattle closed up .60 at 90.77, the highest close in over five months, helped by a gradual improvement of economic news.

Energies
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were down 3.7 million barrels last week to 350.2 million barrels and 600,000 barrels were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Supplies of gasoline were up 2.3 million barrels while heating oil supplies were up 2.8 million barrels. September crude oil was higher before the report, but ended down .57 at $70.27.

The DOE also said that refinery use slipped from 87.1% to 87.0% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .9% from a year ago while distillate demand was down 9.4% from a year ago.

September natural gas was down 3.8 cents at $3.944 with mild temperatures over most of the U.S. this week.

Metals
Two different surveys of manufacturing in China show slight improvement in June and continued expansion. September copper closed up 5.85 cents at $2.3305.

October gold finished up $14.00 at $942.80, helped by today's weaker U.S. dollar.

Currencies
Australia's Statistics Bureau said that retail sales were up 1% in May, stronger than expected. The September Australian dollar ended up .20 at 80.49.

The September Canadian dollar jumped up .99 to 87.09, one day after the government said that real GDP was down 3.0% in April from a year ago.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that its index of services was down .1% in April. Also, a separate index of manufacturing in the U.K. increased from 45.4 to 47.0 in June, still a sign of contraction.

An index of manufacturing in the Euro zone increased from 40.7 to 42.6 in June, still a sign of contraction, but the best reading in nine months.

Japan's Tankan survey of business confidence increased from -58 to -48 in the second quarter, but still indicated pessimism.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

U.S. Economy
The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of home prices in twenty cities was down .6% in April and down 18.1% from a year ago - not as big of a drop as expected. September lumber fell $6.00 to $211.80.

The International Monetary Fund said that, in the first quarter of 2009, 65% of the world's currency reserves were held as U.S. dollars and 26% were held as euros. The September U.S. dollar index was up .31 at 80.425 as it looks more like the U.S. economy may be rebounding better than most.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers index increased from 34.9 to 39.9 in June, stronger than expected.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell from 54.8 to 49.3 in June, weaker than expected. The December 2010 eurodollars closed down .075 at 97.695.

Grains and Cotton
The USDA said in today's acreage report that:
87.03 million acres of corn were planted, much more than expected.
77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted, less than expected, but a new record high.
59.78 million acres of wheat were planted, more than expected.
9.05 million acres of cotton were planted, down 4% from a year ago, but more than the 8.81 million acres in the USDA's June report.
October cotton closed up .63 at 55.63.

87.03 million acres of corn is the second largest planting since 1946. December corn ended down its 30-cent daily limit at $3.672, the lowest close in over six months.

The USDA also said that June 1st grain stocks for:
Corn were 4.27 billion bushels, more than expected.
Soybeans were 597 million bushels, a little more than expected.
Wheat were 667 million bushels, roughly as expected.

The USDA said that China bought 113,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2009-2010. November soybeans spent the day lower, but finished down just 2.5 cents at $9.81.

Japan was reported to be shopping for 108,000 tons of wheat. December wheat closed down 17.25 cents at $5.657, the lowest close in over three months.

Livestock
September feeder cattle started the day higher, encouraged by the high corn acres, but ended up just .10 at 101.80.

Cocoa
There is not much news on the cocoa crop in West Africa, but September cocoa dropped $43 to $2,510, pressured by today's stronger dollar.

Metals
October gold fell $13.30 to $928.80 with signs of deflation in Europe.

Energies
China said that it will increase its retail gasoline price by roughly 9% today. September crude oil closed down $1.54 at $70.84.

Currencies
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in April and down 3.0% from a year ago, as expected. Also, the index of industrial prices was down 1.1% in May and down 4.3% from a year ago, a bigger drop than expected. The September Canadian dollar fell .40 to 86.10.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was down 4.9% in the first quarter from a year ago, a bigger drop than expected and the worst quarter since 1958. The September British pound closed down 1.09 cents at $1.6463.

The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 5.0% to 5.2%, the highest in five years. The government said that 3.47 million people are now unemployed, up 28% from a year ago. Also, household spending was up .3% in May from a year ago. The September yen was down .0037 at 1.0388.

Eurostat estimated that consumer prices were down .1% in June from a year ago.

Germany's Federal Labor Office said that the unemployment rate increased from 8.2% to 8.3% in May with a loss of 31,000 jobs, a smaller loss than expected. Germany now has 3.495 million people out of work.

Monday, June 29, 2009

U.S. Economy
Reuters reported that Ford's chief sales analyst said that their auto sales could be down less than 20% in June from a year ago, a sign of an improving U.S. economy. The December 2010 eurodollars ended down .035 at 97.77.

When asked about the housing market on CNBC, James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said that "we're in a process... we may be seeing some bottoming..." September lumber fell $9.90 to $217.80, the lowest close in two weeks.

Grains and Cotton
The USDA reported that 60,000 tons of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations this year and 58,000 tons were sold for 2009-2010. Also, previous sales of 232,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations were said to have gone to South Korea. December corn fell 7 cents to $3.972.

The USDA said that last week's export inspections for:
Corn totaled 27.7 million bushels, down 36% from a year ago.
Soybeans totaled 12.9 million bushels, down 36% from a year ago.
Wheat totaled 10.1 million bushels, down 44% from a year ago.

According to Dow Jones Newswires, Joseph Glauber, the USDA's chief economist, said that he expects corn acres to be reduced and soybean acres to be increased in tomorrow's acreage report. November soybeans were down 7.5 cents at $9.835.

After the close, the USDA said that:
72% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 70% a week ago.
68% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, up from 67% a week ago.
76% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 77% a week ago.
42% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent, down from 44% a week ago.
40% of the winter wheat was harvested.

Livestock
After Friday's close, the USDA said that there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% from a year ago, roughly as expected. 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% from a year ago and less than expected. October hogs finished up .32 at 55.10, helped by a big jump in cattle prices.

October cattle closed up 2.27 cents at 90.40, the highest close in over five months, with help from improving economic conditions and reduced numbers of available cattle.

Coffee
September coffee was up 1.05 cents at $1.2025 after Hondura's President Zelaya was overthrown by the military over the weekend.

Sugar
October sugar jumped up .59 to a new contract high of 17.90 with ongoing support from expectations for a world production deficit this year.

Orange juice
After the close, the USDA's Florida Weather Crop Report said that last week's "seasonal, tropical weather has been excellent for fruit growth and tree foliage." September orange juice ended down .05 at 76.35.

Metals
October gold ended down .30 at $942.10 while investors grow impatient with the lack of inflation.

Energies
The International Energy Agency said that they expect world oil demand to increase from 85.8 to 89 million barrels per day from 2008 to 2014, less than earlier forecast. September crude oil gained $2.36 to $72.38, the highest close in a week, with ongoing problems in Nigeria.

Currencies
Industrial output in Japan increased 5.9% in May, the third consecutive month of positive gain. However, the Trade Ministry said that they expect manufacturing to slow in June. The September yen dropped .0090 to 1.0425.

Friday, June 26, 2009

U.S. Economy
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.4% in May, more than expected, while spending was up .3%. The December 2010 eurodollars closed up .085 at 97.805.

The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index increased from 68.7 to 70.8 in June, better than expected.

The People's Bank of China said again today that it would like to see a new international currency and more involvement from the International Monetary Fund. The September U.S. dollar index closed down .585 at 80.105.

KB Home said that its orders for new homes increased 59% in the second quarter of this year, but they were still down 31% from a year ago. September lumber closed up $6.40 at $227.70.

Grains and Cotton
Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia's winter wheat crop may total roughly 38.5 million tons this year, down from 42.7 million tons a year ago due to frost earlier this year. December wheat was up a penny at $5.872.

December corn ended up 2.75 cents at $4.042 with the USDA's acreage report due out on Tuesday morning.

Livestock
After the close, the USDA said that there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% from a year ago, roughly as expected. 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% from a year ago and less than expected. October hogs fell 1.02 to a new contract low of 54.77 ahead of today's report.

The USDA said that the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% from a year ago. Pork production totaled 1.72 billion pounds in May, down 5% from a year ago. October cattle ended down .12 at 88.12.

After the close, the USDA estimated this week's beef production at 516.2 million pounds, down 6.1% from a year ago. Pork production was estimated at 412.0 million pounds, down 2.6% from a year ago.

Coffee
Brazil's coffee harvest continues and so far, the weather is said to be favorable. September coffee finished down 1.05 cents at $1.1920 in spite of today's weaker U.S. dollar.

Energies
Militants in Nigeria said that they blew up an oil wellhead in southern Nigeria that belonged to Royal Dutch Shell. The violence in Nigeria has increased the past week and shows no sign of letting up. September crude oil closed down $1.06 at $70.02 in spite of today's news from Nigeria.

Currencies
It looks like deflation is still a problem in Japan. The Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down 1.1% in May from a year ago, the biggest annual decline since records began in 1971. The September yen finished up .0077 at 1.0515.

Real GDP in New Zealand was down 1% in the first quarter of 2009 and down 2.7% from a year ago. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of decline.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

U.S. Economy
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was down 1.4% in the first quarter and down 2.5% from a year ago, roughly the same as last month's estimate. The December 2010 eurodollars closed up .17 at 97.72, the highest close in two weeks.

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 15,000 last week to 627,000, more than expected.

The U.S. Treasury sold $27 billion of seven-year notes today at a yield of 3.33%, less than expected with more bids than expected. The September U.S. T-bonds jumped up 1.29/64ths to 118.01/64ths, the highest close in four weeks, also helped by yesterday's reminder that the Fed will buy $300 billion of Treasury securities by this fall.

Grains and Cotton
The USDA said that, as of last week, 2008-2009 exports of:
Corn improved from down 33% to down 32% from a year ago.
Soybeans remained up 11% from a year ago.
Cotton remained up 4% from a year ago.

So far in the new 2009-2010 season, U.S. wheat exports were down 36% from a year ago - far more than the 11% decline that the USDA is expecting for the whole year. December wheat ended down 6 cents at $5.862, the lowest close in eight weeks.

The U.S. Census Bureau said that cotton mill use increased from an annual rate of 3.09 to 3.34 million bales in May. October cotton was up .64 at 55.49.

Livestock
October hogs were up .05 at 55.90 ahead of tomorrow's quarterly inventory report from the USDA.

Sugar
In an effort to encourage more production at home, India's government announced that it will pay farmers 33% more for sugar cane this year. India is expected to be a net importer of sugar this year. October sugar closed up .57 at a new contract high of 17.70.

Energies
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 94 billion cubic feet last week to 2.020 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 31% from a year ago. September natural gas was down 8.3 cents at $4.046.

September crude oil closed up $1.58 at $71.08 with ongoing support from a gradually improving world economy. Also, another pipeline attack in Nigeria was reported.

Metals
August gold closed up $5.10 at $939.50 with underlying support from expectations that the world's low interest rate climate will continue, at least through the end of this year.

September copper finished up 3.5 cents at $2.3160, the highest close in a week.

Currencies
The International Monetary Fund predicted that real GDP in Australia will be down .5% this year and up 1.5% in 2010, a better forecast than it gave two months ago. Also, the Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia increased .7% in April, the third consecutive month of positive gain. The September Australian dollar closed up .63 at 79.74.

Eurostat reported that its index of industrial new orders was down .5% in April and down 35% from a year ago. The September euro finished up .0066 at $1.3985.

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