Chart Comment

In September of 2006, corn prices started to reflect a significant boost in ethanol production and that fundamental is still growing, but the big up-trend was interrupted by the financial crisis in the second half of 2008 and a large planting in 2009. Prices are now in a trading range between $3 and $4.50 (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

For the past few decades, soybeans spent most of their time between $4 and $6 per bushel. In late-2006, soybeans broke higher, in sympathy with the big jump in corn demand. Prices got knocked lower in the 2008 financial crisis, but then found support from South America's dry weather, demand from China, and relatively low world stocks. Support at $9? (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

From 1998 to 2002, wheat traded under $3 per bushel with plenty of supply and falling demand. In mid-2006, prices gained strength and eventually hit $13 per bushel after weather problems hit several different wheat-areas, all in the same season. Wheat supplies have since recovered, but there may be less planting in 2010 as the incentives favor other crops. Support around $4.50? (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

For the past 13 years, cotton spent most of its time between 40 and 80 cents and prices are now challenging the upper end of the range. Cotton supplies were reduced by a wet harvest in 2009 and may see improved demand in 2010, but are they ready to surpass 80 cents? (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

From 1987 to 2003, cattle traded between roughly 60 and 80 cents. Since 2004, the range shifted higher, to between roughly 75 cents and $1.00. Prices were hurt by the financial crisis, but may finally be recovering. The higher close in February is impressive (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

Hog prices have traded between roughly 50 and 80 cents since 2003 and the range is still intact. On April 27, 2009, the H1N1 virus (swine flu) became an international health concern and pushed prices below 50 cents in August, but could not stay below for long - a nice rebound (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

Lumber prices were long-term cheap, thanks to the worst housing market in my lifetime and the financial panic of 2008. Even though the housing market is still weak, prices have jumped up nicely from their lows and should hold above $200 from here on (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

In February of 2007, cocoa prices had a nice breakout and eventually hit $3,300 by July of 2008. Prices sold off in the second half of 2008 with the financial crisis, but bounced back with ongoing concerns about a shrinking crop in West Africa. Prices are expensive, but another production deficit is expected in 2010. So far, $3,500 is the top (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

From 1998 to late-2007, coffee prices typically stayed below $1.25. In December of 2007, prices broke higher, but then fell to $1.00 in the financial crisis of late-2008. Since then, prices have chopped higher with increasing talk of tight supplies. There should be support around $1.20 and a break above $1.50 would be bullish (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

For the past two decades, sugar has traded between roughly 5 and 16 cents and most of that time was before ethanol was a significant factor. Sugar weathered the financial panic of 2008 better than most commodities, stayed above the long-term average, and broke to new highs with weather problems in India and Brazil. This is a legitimate shortage and prices may go even higher, but big price swings are possible - be careful (updated 2-26-10).

Chart Comment

For two decades, orange juice traded between 60 cents and $2.00 per pound and that range is still intact. After the 2008 financial crisis, prices bottomed out in February of 2009 and are now working higher. There were already expectations for a smaller 2009-2010 Florida orange crop when freezing weather hit the state in January - a bullish combo (updated 2-26-10).