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Dailyfutures.com
Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Euro, and the Japanese yen
Australian dollar
Chart Comment
On October 6, 2009, Australia became the first G-20 member to raise its interest rate and expectations remain high for the economy. For four months, prices have been in a big, trading range between 86 and 93. The close above 90 cents on March 2nd was impressive (updated 3-2).
Key Events - Australia
2010
3-3 - Real GDP +.9% in Q4 and +2.7% from a year ago, better than expected and the best quarterly growth in over two years.
3-2 - RBA raised interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.
2-11 - January unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the lowest in eleven months.
1-27 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.5% in 2010 and +3.0% in 2011.
1-14 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% with a net gain of 35,200 jobs, much stronger than expected.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing fell from 51.2 to 48.5 in December, a sign of contraction.
2009
12-16 - Real GDP +.2% in Q3 and +.5% from a year ago, less than expected.
12-10 - November unemployment rate improved from 5.8% to 5.7% with a net gain of 31,200 jobs, better than expected.
12-1 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, the third consecutive month.
11-12 - October unemployment rate increased from 5.7% to 5.8% in spite of a net gain of 24,500 jobs, more than expected.
11-6 - RBA est.: Real GDP +1.75% in 2009 and +3.25% in 2010.
11-5 - Exports up 5% in September.
11-3 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%.
10-8 - September unemployment rate improves to 5.7% from 5.8% with a gain of 40,600 jobs, more than expected.
10-6 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, the first G-20 member to do so.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2009 and +2.0% in 2010.
9-30 - Retail sales up .9% in August, much stronger than expected.
9-10 - August unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% in July, but 27,100 jobs were lost, weaker than expected.
9-2 - Q2 real GDP +.6% v. year ago, much stronger than expected.
8-6 - July unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, but 32,200 jobs were added, much more than expected.
7-9 - June unemployment rate increased from 5.7% to 5.8%. 21,400 jobs lost, roughly as expected.
7-1 - Retail sales +1.0% in May, stronger than expected.
6-25 - IMF est.: Real GDP -.5% in 2009 and +1.5% in 2010.
6-24 - OECD est.: Real GDP -.4% in 2009 and +1.2% in 2010.
6-11 - May unemployment rate jumps from 5.5% to 5.7%, the highest in seven years. Job losses total 1,700, not as bad as expected.
6-3 - Q1 real GDP was up .4% from a year ago, better than expected.
5-7 - Australia becomes the first economy among our currencies to show job growth. The unemployment rate in April improved from 5.7% to 5.4% with a net gain of 27,300 jobs.
4-9 - Unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.7% in March, the highest in seven years.
4-7 - Reserve Bank reduced its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00%, the lowest in 49 years.
3-12 - Unemployment rate increased from 4.8% to 5.2% in February, the highest in almost four years.
3-4 - Q4 real GDP was down .5%, the first negative quarter in eight years.
Fundamental Notes
Australia is currently the strongest performing economy of the currencies that we cover and the only one that avoided a recession in 2009. Real GDP was up 2.7% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. On October 9, 2008, the World Economic Forum said that Australia's banking system was the fourth soundest in the world.
Australia's government spends 35% of the nation's income, which is surprisingly low when you consider that they also provide universal healthcare. Overall tax revenues only amount to 31% of the nation's income.
Australia Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +2.7% in the fourth quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 5.3% in January.
Consumer price index: +2.1% in Q4 v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Raised from 3.50% to 3.75% on December 1, 2009.
GDP: US$800 billion (2008 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 15% (CIA estimate).
Population: 21.3 million (2009 CIA estimate).
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 3rd in 2009.
British Pound
Chart Comment
On January 21st, prices fell below the 100-day average after a brief stint above it - a bearish sign. Now that prices are significantly lower, is there much downside left? Possible support around $1.50 (updated 3-5).
Key Events - U.K.
2010
2-26 - Q4 GDP +.3% and -3.3% from a year ago.
2-17 - Oct-Dec unemployment rate stayed at 7.8%. Jobless claims hit 1.64 million, the most since April of 1997.
1-26 - Q4 GDP +.1% and -3.3% from a year ago.
1-20 - Sep-Nov unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
1-19 - Consumer prices +2.9% in December from a year ago, more than expected.
1-13 - Manufacturing output unchanged in November and down 5.4% from a year ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing increased from 51.8 to 54.1 in December, the highest in over two years.
2009
12-22 - Q3 GDP -.2% and -5.1% from a year ago.
12-16 - Aug-Oct unemployment rate at 7.9%.
12-8 - Manufacturing output unchanged in October.
11-25 - Q3 GDP -.3% and -5.1% from a year ago.
11-11 - July-Sep unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
11-5 - Manufacturing output up 1.7% in September, better than expected.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP +.9% in 2010 and +1.9% in 2011.
10-23 - Q3 GDP -.4% and -5.2% from a year ago, weaker than expected and the longest recession since 1955.
10-14 - June-Aug unemployment rate stayed at 7.9%, better than expected.
10-6 - Manufacturing output -1.9% in August, weaker than expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -4.4% in 2009 and +.9% in 2010.
9-16 - May-July unemployment rate at 7.9% (14 yr high).
9-8 - Manufacturing output up .9% in July, much stronger than expected.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -4.7% in 2009.
9-1 - Manufacturing index falls from 50.2 to 49.7 in August, weaker than expected.
8-28 - Q2 GDP revised to -5.5% from a year ago.
8-12 - Apr-June unemployment rate at 7.8% (14 yr high), up from 7.1% in Jan-Mar.
8-5 - Manufacturing output +.4% in June, better than expected. Also, index of services increased from 51.6 to 53.2 in July, the highest in 17 months.
8-3 - Manufacturing index hits 50.8 in July, better than expected and the first sign of expansion in over a year.
7-24 - Q2 GDP -5.6% from a year ago, weaker than expected.
7-23 - June retail sales +1.2%, much better than expected.
7-15 - Mar-May unemployment rate at 7.6%, up from 6.7% in Dec-Feb.
7-14 - Consumer prices +1.8% in June from a year ago. First time below the government's 2.0% target since September of 2007.
7-8 - IMF est.: 2009 GDP -4.2%. 2010 GDP +.2%.
7-7 - Manufacturing output -.5% in May, weaker than expected.
6-3- - Q1 GDP -4.9% from a year ago - worst quarter since 1958.
6-24 - OECD est.: Real GDP -4.3% in 2009 and flat in 2010.
6-17 - Feb-Apr unemployment increases from 7.1% to 7.2%, better than expected.
6-10 - Industrial output up .3% in April, better than expected and the first monthly gain since February of 2008.
6-8 - OECD: U.K. economy may have bottomed.
6-3 - Index of services for May shows first expansion in a year.
Fundamental Notes
Real GDP was down 3.3% in the fourth quarter from a year ago which is still very weak. The government spends 45% of the GDP which is high, but of course, they also offer more public services like universal healthcare. Altogether, tax revenues amount to 39% of the nation's income. On June 24, 2009, the OECD said that they expect real GDP will be down 4.3% in 2009 and flat in 2010.
U.K. Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: -3.3% in the fourth quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 7.8% in Oct-Dec.
Consumer price index: +3.5% in January v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.00% to .50% on March 5, 2009.
GDP: US$2.23 trillion (2008 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 47% and rising (2008 CIA estimate).
Population: 61.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 10th in 2009.
Canadian dollar
Chart Comment
The higher close on March 1st was impressive and now prices are nearing resistance at 98 cents. Canada's housing market is said to be needing higher interest rates - will that push the Canadian dollar higher? (updated 3-5).
Key Events - Canada
2010
3-2 - Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected, but raised the inflation risk from 'downward' to 'balanced.'
3-1 - Real GDP +.6% in December and unchanged from a year ago. For all of 2009, GDP was -2.6%.
2-5 - January unemployment improved from 8.4% to 8.3% with a net gain of 43,000 jobs, better than expected.
2-2 - Canada's government est.: Real GDP +2.6% in 2010 and +3.2% in 2011.
1-29 - Real GDP up .4% in November; -1.7% from a year ago.
1-26 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.6% in 2010 and +3.6% in 2011.
1-21 - Bank of Canada est.: Real GDP +2.9% in 2010 and +3.5% in 2011.
1-8 - December unemployment rate stayed at 8.5%.
2009
12-23 - Real GDP up .2% in October; -3.2% from a year ago.
12-4 - November unemployment rate improved from 8.6% to 8.5%, better than expected.
11-30 - Real GDP up .1% in Q3; -3.2% from a year ago.
11-6 - October unemployment rate increased from 8.4% to 8.6%.
10-30 - August GDP -4.0% from a year ago.
10-20 - Bank of Canada est.: Real GDP +3.0% in 2010 and +3.3% in 2011.
10-15 - Manufacturing sales -2.1% in August and -20% v. year ago.
10-9 - September unemployment rate improved from 8.7% to 8.4%, much better than expected and the first decline since the fall of 2008.
10-9 - Exports down 5% in August and down 32% from a year ago.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009 and +2.1% in 2010.
9-30 - July GDP -4.6% from a year ago.
9-17 - The composite index of leading indicators was up 1.1% in August, the biggest monthly increase since April of 2002.
9-4 - August unemployment rate increased from 8.6% to 8.7%, but surprised the market by adding 27,100 jobs.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009.
8-31 - June GDP -3.2% from a year ago.
8-14 - July housing sales up 18% from a year ago and the best July on record.
8-7 - July unemployment rate remained at 8.6%. 45,000 jobs lost was more than expected.
7-31 - May GDP -3.5% from a year ago, weaker than expected.
7-21 - Improved GDP outlook from the Bank of Canada: -2.3% in 2009 and +3.0% in 2010.
7-15 - May manufacturing sales down 6% and the lowest since November of 1998.
7-10 - June unemployment rate increased from 8.4% to 8.6% (11 yr high). 7,400 jobs lost, not as bad as expected.
7-8 - IMF est.: 2009 GDP -2.3%. 2010 +1.6%.
6-3- - April GDP -3.0% from a year ago.
6-24 - OECD est.: Real GDP -2.6% in 2009 and +.7% in 2010.
6-19 - Retail sales down .8% in April, weaker than expected after three months of positive gains.
6-15 - Manufacturing sales down .1% in April.
6-10 - Exports fall 5.1% in April, results in trade "deficit" (December of 2008 posted first trade deficit in three decades).
6-8 - OECD: Canadian economy may have bottomed.
6-5 - May unemployment rate increased from 8.0% to 8.4%, the highest in 11 years.
6-4 - Bank of Canada warns that rising Canadian dollar threatens the economy.
6-1 - Q1 real GDP down 1.4%, the weakest since 1991, and down 2.1% from a year ago, a little better than expected.
Fundamental Notes
Canada's economy is slowing improving, affected by the financial crisis in the U.S. Real GDP was unchanged in December from a year ago. For all of 2009, real GDP was down 2.6% after gaining .4% in 2008. On January 21, 2010, the Bank of Canada predicted that real GDP will be up 2.9% in 2010 and up 3.5% in 2011.
The government spends 39% of the nation's income and offers universal healthcare. Tax revenues amount to 33% of the nation's income. Fiscal year 2008-2009 is expected to show another budget surplus for the 12th consecutive year (Hey U.S. - it can be done!), but a deficit is expected in 2009-2010 due to recession. On October 9, 2009, a survey by the World Economic Forum said that Canada had the soundest banking system in the world. According to Credit Suisse, Canadian banks have the second highest ratio of bank deposits to liabilities in the G-7, just behind Japan.
Canada Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: Unchanged in December v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 8.3% in January.
Consumer price index: +1.9% in January v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from .50% to .25% on April 21, 2009.
GDP: US$1.31 trillion (2008 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 62% (2008 CIA estimate).
Population: 33.5 million (2009 CIA estimate).
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 7th in 2009.
Euro
Chart Comment
The euro broke below the 100-day average on December 15th and had a nice fall as problems surfaced with Greece, Spain, and Portugal. So far, prices are weak, but may be finding support around $1.35 (updated 3-5).
Key Events - EU-27
2010
3-4 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago.
3-1 - January (EU27) unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%.
2-25 - European Commission est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2010 in the EU.
2-16 - European Union predicts roughly 1.0% growth in 2010 for the Euro zone.
2-12 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago, weaker than expected.
2-11 - European Union strikes deal to provide aid to Greece.
1-29 - December (EU27) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6% in December, the highest since records began in January of 2000.
1-14 - Industrial production +.9% in November, but down 6.4% from a year ago.
1-8 - November (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.8% to 10.0%, the highest since the euro began in 1999.
1-8 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing for the Euro area increased from 51.2 to 51.6 in December, the highest in 21 months.
2009
12-17 - Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.
12-16 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased from 53.7 to 54.2 in December, the highest in over two years.
12-3 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
12-3 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
12-1 - October (EA) unemployment rate unchanged at 9.8%.
11-23 - Markit Econ.: Composite index of mfg. and services increased from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
11-19 - OECD GDP est. for Euro area: +.9% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011.
11-13 - Q3 GDP +.2% and -4.3% v. year ago.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) +.7% in 2010 and +1.5% in 2011.
10-30 - September (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.6% to 9.8%.
10-7 - Q2 GDP -4.9% v. year ago.
10-1 - August (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6%.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -4.2% in 2009 and +.3% in 2010.
9-4 - ECB est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) will be down 4.1% in 2009 and up .2% in 2010.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -3.9% in 2009.
9-2 - Q2 GDP -4.8% v. year ago.
9-1 - July (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.4% to 9.5%.
9-1 - Manufacturing index improved from 46.3 to 48.2, still contracting.
8-21 - Composite index of mfg and services increased from 47.0 to 50.0 in August, the highest in 15 months.
8-13 - Q2 GDP -4.8% v. year ago, better than expected. France and Germany both post positive growth of +.3% in Q2.
8-12 - Industrial production -.2% in June.
7-31 - June (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.3% to 9.4%.
7-8 - Q1 GDP -4.7% v. year ago.
7-8 - IMF est.: Euro area 2009 GDP -4.8%. 2010 GDP -.3%.
7-2 - May (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.2% to 9.3%.
6-24 - OECD est.: Real GDP -4.8% in 2009 and flat in 2010.
6-12 - Industrial production was -.9% in April, weaker than expected.
6-8 - OECD: Economies in France and Italy may have bottomed.
6-3 - Update: Q1 real GDP was down 4.5% from a year ago.
6-2 - April (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.0% to 9.2%.
Fundamental Notes
The outlook for Europe is improving and fourth quarter GDP was up slightly, but still down -2.3% from a year ago. For all of 2009, real GDP was down 4.1%. On February 25, 2010, the European Commission estimated 2010 growth at .7% for the European Union.
The governments of Germany, France, and Italy spend 45%, 53%, and 50% of their nation's incomes, respectively. That is high compared to most democracies due to the level of social programs that they offer. Tax revenues in the same three countries total 41%, 46%, and 43% of GDP and public debt amounts to 63%, 67%, and 104% of GDP.
European Union (27) Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: -2.3% in the fourth quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 9.5% in January.
Consumer price index: +1.7% in January v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.25% to 1.00% on May 7, 2009.
Population: 492 million (2009 ECB estimate).
GDP: US$14.82 trillion (2008 CIA estimate).
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rankings: Denmark is 8th; Germany is 25th; France is 64th; Italy is 76th.
Japanese Yen
Chart Comment
This market is cruel. On March 2nd, Japan's government released a surprisingly strong employment report and the yen closed at its highest in 11 weeks. Two days later, prices closed below the 100-day average after the U.S. posted a modestly positive employment report - a sign of weakness (updated 3-5).
Key Events - Japan
2010
3-2 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January, the lowest in ten months and much better than expected. The economy added 540,000 jobs, the biggest monthly gain since 1973.
2-26 - Factory output up 2.5% in January, better than expected.
2-15 - Real GDP +1.1% in Q4 and -.9% from a year ago, better than expected. For calendar year 2009, real GDP was down 5.0%.
1-29 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.1% with 130,000 new jobs, the most in four months.
1-26 - Bank of Japan est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009-2010 and up 1.3% in 2010-2011.
1-26 - December exports up 12% from a year ago, the first annual gain in 15 months.
2009
12-26 - November unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2%.
12-21 - November exports +5% and down 6% from a year ago, the smallest annual decline in 14 months.
12-9 - Real GDP +.3% in Q3 and down 5.1% from a year ago, much weaker than last month's estimate.
11-27 - October unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1%, much better than expected for the third consecutive month.
11-25 - October exports -23.2% from a year ago, smallest annual decline in a year.
11-19 - OECD GDP est.: +1.8% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
11-16 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q3 and down 4.5% from a year ago, stronger than expected.
10-30 - September unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the best in four months.
10-29 - Industrial output +1.4% in September, the seventh consecutive month higher.
10-2 - August unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5%, much better than expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -5.4% in 2009 and +1.7% in 2010.
9-24 - Exports down 36% in August from a year ago, the 11th consecutive decline.
9-11 - Real GDP +.6% in Q2 and -7.2% from a year ago.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -5.6% in 2009.
8-31 - Democratic Party wins national elections after more than fifty years of the Liberal Democratic Party in control.
8-28 - July unemployment rate increased from 5.4% to 5.7%, a new record high. Consumer prices down 2.2% in July from a year ago, a record decline.
8-17 - Real GDP +.9% in Q2 and -6.4% from a year ago.
7-31 - June unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.4%, the highest in six years.
7-30 - Industrial production +8.3% in Q2, the best quarterly increase since 1953.
7-8 - IMF est.: 2009 GDP -6.0%. 2010 GDP +1.7%.
6-30 - Unemployment rate increased from 5.0% to 5.2%, the highest in five years.
6-29 - Industrial output +5.9% in May, the third consecutive increase.
6-26 - Consumer prices down 1.1% in May from a year ago - record annual drop.
6-24 - OECD est.: Real GDP -6.8% in 2009 and +.7% in 2010.
Real GDP revised to -3.3% in fiscal year 2008-2009.
Fundamental Notes
Its a surprise, but Japan's economy is improving. Real GDP in Japan was down 5.0% in calendar year 2009, but only down .9% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. On July 15th, the Bank of Japan said that it expects real GDP to be down 3.4% in 2009-2010. Japan's fiscal year ends on March 31st.
Japan's government spends 36% of the nation's income, fairly low compared to other democracies and they provide universal healthcare. Tax revenues amount to only 27% of GDP, but public debt is a whopping 170% of GDP.
Japan Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: -.9% in the fourth quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 4.9% in January v. 5.2% in December.
Consumer price index: -1.3% in January v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from .30% to .10% on December 19, 2008.
GDP: US$4.35 trillion (2008 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 170% (2008 CIA estimate).
Population: 127.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 19th in 2009.
Terms and Abbreviations
CBO - Congressional Budget Office.
Euro area or EU-16 - Includes Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, and Slovakia.
EU-27 - Includes the EU-16 plus Denmark, U.K., Sweden, (non-Turkish) Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania.
GDP - Gross Domestic Product.
IMF - International Monetary Fund.
OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The OECD groups 30 member countries sharing a commitment to democratic government and the market economy.
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