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Australian dollar
Fundamental Notes
Australia is currently the strongest performing economy of the currencies that we cover and the only one that avoided a recession in 2009. Real GDP was up 3.3% in the second quarter from a year ago. On October 9, 2008, the World Economic Forum said that Australia's banking system was the fourth soundest in the world.
Australia's government spends 34% of the nation's income, which is surprisingly low when you consider that they also provide universal healthcare. Overall tax revenues only amount to 31% of the nation's income.
Australia Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +3.3% in the second quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 5.3% in July.
Consumer price index: +2.9% in Q1 v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Raised from 4.25% to 4.50% on May 4, 2010.
GDP: US$824 billion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 19% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 21.3 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 3rd.
Key Events - Australia
2010
9-1 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q2 and +3.3% from a year ago, better than expected.
8-12 - July unemployment rate increased to 5.3% with a net loss of 24,600 jobs, worse than expected.
7-15 - Real GDP in China +10.3% in Q2 from a year ago, down from an annual gain of 11.9% in Q1.
7-8 - June unemployment rate steady at 5.1% (May revised to 5.1%) with a net gain of 45,900 jobs, many more than expected.
6-10 - May unemployment rate improved from 5.4% to 5.2% with a net gain of 26,900 jobs.
6-2 - Real GDP +.5% in Q1 and +2.7% from a year ago.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +3.2% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.
5-13 - April unemployment rate stayed at 5.4% in April with a gain of 33,700 jobs, more than expected.
5-4 - RBA raised interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%.
4-8 - March unemployment rate stayed at 5.3% with a net gain of 19,600 jobs.
3-29 - RBA Governor Stevens warned that property markets are over-heating.
3-11 - February unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% with a net gain of 400 jobs.
3-3 - Real GDP +.9% in Q4 and +2.7% from a year ago, better than expected and the best quarterly growth in over two years.
3-2 - RBA raised interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.
2-11 - January unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the lowest in eleven months.
1-27 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.5% in 2010 and +3.0% in 2011.
1-14 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% with a net gain of 35,200 jobs, much stronger than expected.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing fell from 51.2 to 48.5 in December, a sign of contraction.
2009
12-16 - Real GDP +.2% in Q3 and +.5% from a year ago, less than expected.
12-10 - November unemployment rate improved from 5.8% to 5.7% with a net gain of 31,200 jobs, better than expected.
12-1 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, the third consecutive month.
11-12 - October unemployment rate increased from 5.7% to 5.8% in spite of a net gain of 24,500 jobs, more than expected.
11-6 - RBA est.: Real GDP +1.75% in 2009 and +3.25% in 2010.
11-5 - Exports up 5% in September.
11-3 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%.
10-8 - September unemployment rate improves to 5.7% from 5.8% with a gain of 40,600 jobs, more than expected.
10-6 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, the first G-20 member to do so.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2009 and +2.0% in 2010.
9-30 - Retail sales up .9% in August, much stronger than expected.
9-10 - August unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% in July, but 27,100 jobs were lost, weaker than expected.
9-2 - Q2 real GDP +.6% v. year ago, much stronger than expected.
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British Pound
Fundamental Notes
Real GDP was up 1.7% in the second quarter from a year ago, better than expected. For all of 2009, GDP was down 4.9%, the largest fall on record, after posting a gain of .5% in 2008. The government spends 44% of the GDP which is high, but of course, they also offer more public services like universal healthcare. Altogether, tax revenues amount to 38% of the nation's income.
U.K. Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +1.7% in the second quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 7.8% in Apr-June
Consumer price index: +3.1% in July v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.00% to .50% on March 5, 2009.
GDP: US$2.15 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 69% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 61.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 11th.
Key Events - U.K.
2010
8-30 - British Chamber of Commerce increased GDP growth estimate from 1.3% to 1.7% for 2010.
8-27 - Q2 GDP +1.2% and +1.7% from a year ago.
8-13 - Q2 construction output was up 8.6%, the most since 1963. Higher GDP likely ahead.
8-11 - April-June unemployment rate stays at 7.8%.
8-11 - Bank of England predicts GDP growth of 3.0% per year for the next two years.
7-23 - Q2 GDP +1.1% and +1.6% from a year ago, much better than expected.
7-14 - Mar-May unemployment rate improves to 7.8%.
7-11 - Q1 GDP +.3% and -.2% from a year ago.
7-8 - IMF est.: Real GDP +1.2% in 2010 and +2.1% in 2011.
6-22 - Finance Minister Osborne est.: Real GDP +1.2% in 2010 and 2.3% in 2011.
6-16 - Feb-Apr unemployment rate at 7.9%.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +1.3% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011.
5-25 - Q1 GDP +.3% and -.2% from a year ago.
5-12 - Jan-Mar unemployment rate at 8.0%, unchanged from a month ago. 2.51 million out of work, the most since 1994.
4-23 - Q1 GDP +.2% and -.3% from a year ago.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP +1.3% in 2010 and +2.5% in 2011.
4-21 - Dec-Feb unemployment rate at 8.0%, up from 7.8% a month ago.
3-30 - Q4 GDP +.4% and -3.1% from a year ago.
3-24 - Finance Minister Darling: Real GDP est. +3.25% in 2011.
3-17 - Nov-Jan unemployment rate at 7.8%, down from revised 7.9% a month ago.
2-26 - Q4 GDP +.3% and -3.3% from a year ago.
2-17 - Oct-Dec unemployment rate stayed at 7.8%. Jobless claims hit 1.64 million, the most since April of 1997.
1-26 - Q4 GDP +.1% and -3.3% from a year ago.
1-20 - Sep-Nov unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
1-19 - Consumer prices +2.9% in December from a year ago, more than expected.
1-13 - Manufacturing output unchanged in November and down 5.4% from a year ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing increased from 51.8 to 54.1 in December, the highest in over two years.
2009
12-22 - Q3 GDP -.2% and -5.1% from a year ago.
12-16 - Aug-Oct unemployment rate at 7.9%.
12-8 - Manufacturing output unchanged in October.
11-25 - Q3 GDP -.3% and -5.1% from a year ago.
11-11 - July-Sep unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
11-5 - Manufacturing output up 1.7% in September, better than expected.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP +.9% in 2010 and +1.9% in 2011.
10-23 - Q3 GDP -.4% and -5.2% from a year ago, weaker than expected and the longest recession since 1955.
10-14 - June-Aug unemployment rate stayed at 7.9%, better than expected.
10-6 - Manufacturing output -1.9% in August, weaker than expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -4.4% in 2009 and +.9% in 2010.
9-16 - May-July unemployment rate at 7.9% (14 yr high).
9-8 - Manufacturing output up .9% in July, much stronger than expected.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -4.7% in 2009.
9-1 - Manufacturing index falls from 50.2 to 49.7 in August, weaker than expected.
Canadian dollar
Fundamental Notes
Canada's economy is improving after the 2008 financial crisis. Real GDP was up 3.9% in June from a year ago. For all of 2009, real GDP was down 2.9% after gaining .6% in 2008.
The government spends 39% of the nation's income and provides universal healthcare. Tax revenues amount to 33% of the nation's income. On October 9, 2009, a survey by the World Economic Forum said that Canada had the soundest banking system in the world. According to Credit Suisse, Canadian banks have the second highest ratio of bank deposits to liabilities in the G-7, just behind Japan.
Canada Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +3.9% in June v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 8.0% in July.
Consumer price index: +1.8% in July v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Raised from .50% to .75% on July 20, 2010.
GDP: US$1.28 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 72% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 33.9 million (2010 Statistics Canada estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 7th.
Key Events - Canada
2010
8-30 - Real GDP +.2% in June and up 3.9% from a year ago.
8-6 - July unemployment rate increased from 7.9% to 8.0% with a net loss of 9,300 jobs, weaker than expected.
7-30 - Real GDP +.1% in May and up 3.8% from a year ago.
7-20 - Bank of Canada increased interest rate from .50% to .75%. Lowered GDP growth estimate from 3.7% to 3.5% in 2010 and from 3.1% to 2.9% in 2011.
7-9 - June unemployment rate improved from 8.1% to 7.9% with a net gain of 93,200 jobs, many more than expected.
7-8 - IMF est.: Real GDP +3.6% in 2010 and +2.8% in 2011.
6-30 - Real GDP unchanged in April and up 3.3% from a year ago.
6-10 - Royal Bank of Canada est.: Real GDP +3.6% in 2010 and +3.5% in 2011.
6-1 - Bank of Canada raised interest rate from .25% to .50%, the first G7 nation to do so.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +3.6% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011.
5-7 - April unemployment rate improved from 8.2% to 8.1% with a record-high net gain of 108,700 jobs, many more than expected.
4-30 - Real GDP up .3% in February and up 1.8% from a year ago.
4-26 - Government survey of 15 economists est.: Real GDP +3.1% in 2010 and 2011.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP +3.1% in 2010 and +3.2% in 2011.
4-20 - Bank of Canada est.: +3.7% in 2010 and +3.1% in 2011.
4-9 - March unemployment rate stayed at 8.2% with a net gain of 17,900 jobs, less than expected.
3-31 - Real GDP +.6% in January and +1.3% from a year ago.
3-11 - RBC: Real GDP est. +3.1% in 2010.
3-2 - Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected, but raised the inflation risk from 'downward' to 'balanced.'
3-1 - Real GDP +.6% in December and unchanged from a year ago. For all of 2009, GDP was -2.6%.
2-5 - January unemployment improved from 8.4% to 8.3% with a net gain of 43,000 jobs, better than expected.
2-2 - Canada's government est.: Real GDP +2.6% in 2010 and +3.2% in 2011.
1-29 - Real GDP up .4% in November; -1.7% from a year ago.
1-26 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.6% in 2010 and +3.6% in 2011.
1-21 - Bank of Canada est.: Real GDP +2.9% in 2010 and +3.5% in 2011.
1-8 - December unemployment rate stayed at 8.5%.
2009
12-23 - Real GDP up .2% in October; -3.2% from a year ago.
12-4 - November unemployment rate improved from 8.6% to 8.5%, better than expected.
11-30 - Real GDP up .1% in Q3; -3.2% from a year ago.
11-6 - October unemployment rate increased from 8.4% to 8.6%.
10-30 - August GDP -4.0% from a year ago.
10-20 - Bank of Canada est.: Real GDP +3.0% in 2010 and +3.3% in 2011.
10-15 - Manufacturing sales -2.1% in August and -20% v. year ago.
10-9 - September unemployment rate improved from 8.7% to 8.4%, much better than expected and the first decline since the fall of 2008.
10-9 - Exports down 5% in August and down 32% from a year ago.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009 and +2.1% in 2010.
9-30 - July GDP -4.6% from a year ago.
9-17 - The composite index of leading indicators was up 1.1% in August, the biggest monthly increase since April of 2002.
9-4 - August unemployment rate increased from 8.6% to 8.7%, but surprised the market by adding 27,100 jobs.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009.
Euro
Fundamental Notes
Real GDP in the EU-27 was up 1.9% in the second quarter from a year ago. For all of 2009, real GDP was down 4.2%. On July 8, 2010, the International Monetary Fund estimated 2010 growth at 1.0% for the Euro area.
The governments of Germany, France, and Italy spend 44%, 52%, and 48% of their nation's incomes, respectively. That is high compared to most democracies. Tax revenues in the same three countries total 41%, 45%, and 43% of GDP and public debt amounts to 77%, 80%, and 115% of GDP.
European Union (27) Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +1.9% in the second quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 9.6% in July.
Consumer price index: +2.1% in July v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.25% to 1.00% on May 7, 2009.
Population: 492 million (2009 ECB estimate).
GDP: US$14.5 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rankings: Ireland is 5th; Denmark is 9th; Germany is 23rd; France is 64th; Italy is 74th.
Notable Quote:
BNP Paribas's estimate of Purchasing Power Parity in euro/dollar currently stands at $1.1370.
Reuters.com, May 26, 2010.
Key Events - EU-27
2010
9-2 - ECB est.: Real GDP +1.6% in 2010 and +1.4% in 2011.
9-2 - Q2 GDP +1.0% and +1.9% from a year ago.
8-13 - Q2 GDP +1.0% and +1.7% from a year ago.
8-13 - Germany Q2 GDP +2.2%, the most since reunification in 1990.
7-30 - June unemployment rate stayed at 9.6%.
7-23 - 84 of Europe's 91 examined banks pass the stress test - overall, better than expected.
7-22 - Euro zone's composite index of purchasing managers hits its highest level in three months.
7-8 - IMF est.: Real GDP (in Euro area) +1.0% in 2010 and +1.3% in 2011.
7-7 - Q1 GDP +.2% and +.5% from a year ago.
7-2 - May unemployment rate stayed at 9.6%.
6-9 - OPEC: Increased estimate of 2010 GDP growth in the Euro-zone from .6% to .7%.
6-4 - Q1 GDP +.2% and +.5% from a year ago.
5-27 - China voiced its support for Europe. No plans to reduce holdings of European bonds or the euro.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP in the Euro area +1.2% in 2010 and +1.8% in 2011.
5-12 - Q1 GDP +.2% and +.3% from a year ago, better than expected.
5-6 - Greece's Parliament approves budget that allows aid from Europe and the IMF.
4-27 - Standard and Poor's lowered Greece's credit rating from BBB+ to BB+ with a negative outlook.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP for the Euro area +1.0% in 2010 and +1.5% in 2011.
4-7 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago.
3-31 - February unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, the highest since August of 1998.
3-4 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago.
3-1 - January (EU27) unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%.
2-25 - European Commission est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2010 in the EU.
2-16 - European Union predicts roughly 1.0% growth in 2010 for the Euro zone.
2-12 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago, weaker than expected.
2-11 - European Union strikes deal to provide aid to Greece.
1-29 - December (EU27) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6% in December, the highest since records began in January of 2000.
1-14 - Industrial production +.9% in November, but down 6.4% from a year ago.
1-8 - November (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.8% to 10.0%, the highest since the euro began in 1999.
1-8 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing for the Euro area increased from 51.2 to 51.6 in December, the highest in 21 months.
2009
12-17 - Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.
12-16 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased from 53.7 to 54.2 in December, the highest in over two years.
12-3 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
12-3 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
12-1 - October (EA) unemployment rate unchanged at 9.8%.
11-23 - Markit Econ.: Composite index of mfg. and services increased from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
11-19 - OECD GDP est. for Euro area: +.9% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011.
11-13 - Q3 GDP +.2% and -4.3% v. year ago.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) +.7% in 2010 and +1.5% in 2011.
10-30 - September (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.6% to 9.8%.
10-7 - Q2 GDP -4.9% v. year ago.
10-1 - August (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6%.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -4.2% in 2009 and +.3% in 2010.
9-4 - ECB est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) will be down 4.1% in 2009 and up .2% in 2010.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -3.9% in 2009.
9-2 - Q2 GDP -4.8% v. year ago.
9-1 - July (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.4% to 9.5%.
9-1 - Manufacturing index improved from 46.3 to 48.2, still contracting.
Japanese Yen
Fundamental Notes
Japan's economy is slowly improving. Real GDP in Japan was up 1.9% in the second quarter of 2010 from a year ago after declining 5.2% in calendar year 2009 and 1.2% in 2008.
Japan's government spends 36% of the nation's income, fairly low compared to other democracies and they provide universal healthcare. Tax revenues amount to only 28% of GDP, but public debt is a whopping 170% of GDP.
Japan Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +1.9% in the second quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 5.2% in July.
Consumer price index: -.9% in July v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from .30% to .10% on December 19, 2008.
GDP: US$4.14 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 192% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 127.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 19th.
Key Events - Japan
2010
8-27 - July unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.2%, better than expected.
8-16 - Real GDP +.1% in Q2 and +1.9% from a year ago.
7-30 - June unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3%, higher than expected.
7-8 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.4% in 2010 and +1.8% in 2011.
6-29 - May unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2%, higher than expected.
6-16 - Reuters survey of 25 economists est.: Real GDP +2.5% in 2010-2011.
6-10 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q1 and +4.2% from a year ago.
6-9 - OPEC raised its estimate of Japan's 2010 GDP growth from 1.5% to 2.7%.
6-2 - Prime Minister Hatoyama resigned.
5-28 - April unemployment rate increased from 5.0% to 5.1%.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +3.0% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
5-20 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q1 and +4.2% from a year ago.
4-30 - March unemployment rate increased from 4.9% to 5.0%.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP +1.9% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
3-30 - February unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%.
3-29 - Retail sales +4.2% in February from a year ago, stronger than expected and the biggest monthly gain since 1997.
3-11 - Real GDP +.9% in Q4 and -1.4% from a year ago.
3-2 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January, the lowest in ten months and much better than expected. The economy added 540,000 jobs, the biggest monthly gain since 1973.
2-26 - Factory output up 2.5% in January, better than expected.
2-15 - Real GDP +1.1% in Q4 and -.9% from a year ago, better than expected. For calendar year 2009, real GDP was down 5.0%.
1-29 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.1% with 130,000 new jobs, the most in four months.
1-26 - Bank of Japan est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009-2010 and up 1.3% in 2010-2011.
1-26 - December exports up 12% from a year ago, the first annual gain in 15 months.
2009
12-26 - November unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2%.
12-21 - November exports +5% and down 6% from a year ago, the smallest annual decline in 14 months.
12-9 - Real GDP +.3% in Q3 and down 5.1% from a year ago, much weaker than last month's estimate.
11-27 - October unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1%, much better than expected for the third consecutive month.
11-25 - October exports -23.2% from a year ago, smallest annual decline in a year.
11-19 - OECD GDP est.: +1.8% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
11-16 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q3 and down 4.5% from a year ago, stronger than expected.
10-30 - September unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the best in four months.
10-29 - Industrial output +1.4% in September, the seventh consecutive month higher.
10-2 - August unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5%, much better than expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -5.4% in 2009 and +1.7% in 2010.
9-24 - Exports down 36% in August from a year ago, the 11th consecutive decline.
9-11 - Real GDP +.6% in Q2 and -7.2% from a year ago.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -5.6% in 2009.
Terms and Abbreviations
CBO - Congressional Budget Office.
Euro area or EU-16 - Includes Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, and Slovakia.
EU-27 - Includes the EU-16 plus Denmark, U.K., Sweden, (non-Turkish) Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania.
GDP - Gross Domestic Product.
IMF - International Monetary Fund.
OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The OECD groups 30 member countries sharing a commitment to democratic government and the market economy.
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