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Recent articles at DTN:
It's Not Over Yet . . . August 5, 2014
. . . This is no time to stop being vigilant, as the history of USDA estimates reminds us that there is plenty of uncertainty left in these final few months before crops are in the bin . . .
How Bear Markets End . . . July 29, 2014
. . . The next time that you hear someone say that low prices cure low prices, I suggest you run the other way. History shows that it takes buyers to bring about higher prices and, unless they have good reason to buy, cheap prices simply are not enough . . .
Stay Sharp . . . July 22, 2014
. . . The 1980s were an extremely difficult time for agriculture, and the surpluses then were much larger than we are seeing today. But even among the heavy surpluses of the 1980s, there were surprises and opportunities for protecting your farm from the risk of falling grain prices . . .
Valuing Corn . . . July 8, 2014
. . . In an effort to maintain a sense of reality, I recommend paying attention to the commodity's cost of production. It is the anchor around which prices navigate and can help us to recognize the difference between good opportunities and pie-in-the-sky fairy tales . . .
Sleepless Nights . . . June 24, 2014
I cannot say for sure how USDA's Acreage report will turn out on June 30, but I have to warn that the near-unanimous agreement is troubling. USDA's Prospective Plantings report in March is one clue to consider, but don't overlook the importance of new-crop incentives in the planting decision process . . . (Note: the acreage report was a surprise, as warned, but this time in the opposite direction that I was concerned about).
Meal Did What? . . . June 23, 2014
. . . I brought up my one-minute chart in ProphetX and saw all I needed to see -- a late surge of high-volume buying in the final minutes of trading had caught the market off-guard on a sleepy Friday afternoon . . . This was an option-expiration day ambush.
Distant Friends In Wheat . . . June 12, 2014
As you might say about two friends, Chicago and Kansas City wheat go back a long way together, having had a long history of ups and downs through good times and bad. Although their prices sometimes deviate from each other, their overall track record of staying together is better than most marriages . . .
A Look At New-Crop Soybeans . . . June 3, 2014
So far, the bearish outlook for new-crop soybeans seems reasonable, but the road to harvest may hold some surprises along the way. In addition to the perennial weather clues we will be watching for, here are two key market issues I will be paying attention to as we work our way through 2014 . . .
Corn Clears The First Hurdle . . . May 20, 2014
On May 12, corn took a major step toward USDA's estimate of 13.935 billion bushels when USDA said that planting progress jumped from 29% to 59% complete . . . For all practical purposes, it is safe to say that the 2014 U.S. corn crop will not experience significant planting problems -- corn has cleared its first hurdle of the year and prices are turning lower . . .
Let The Guessing Games Begin . . . May 6, 2014
On Friday, May 9, 2014, USDA will release its first WASDE report for the new 2014-5 season in corn and soybeans. This report will be widely discussed and analyzed by many - even over-analyzed. However, please, please do not take this report seriously; this year's grain game has barely begun . . .
Wheat's Drought Dilemma . . . April 22, 2014
So here we are, in early 2014 with July K.C. wheat trading at $7.65 a bushel, teeming with potential for much higher prices, depending on how the rest of the year goes. Wheat's drought dilemma is this: How will we know if (or when) production problems become serious enough to significantly affect prices? . . .
Soybean Prices in Thin Air . . . April 4, 2014
In case you haven't been watching the grain markets lately, current supplies of soybeans are tight -- REALLY tight . . .
Crimea River: Rumblings of War . . . March 7, 2014
If the Washington Post articles by Zbigniew Brzezinski on March 3 and Henry Kissinger on March 5 are indications of the kind of advice that President Obama is currently receiving regarding Russia's advance on Ukraine, then we are likely to hear more strong rhetoric and see some form of economic pressure brought against Russia by the West, but not a direct reigniting of the Cold War . . .
Seven Bull Markets in Ag . . . March 6, 2014
. . . When market opinions turn homogenous, a bidding war erupts, sellers back off, and you can kiss your supply and demand charts goodbye . . .
Large Global Soybean Supplies? Malarkey! . . . February 20, 2014
. . . before we give up all hope on the outlook for new-crop soybeans, I have nagging question. If there are so many soybeans in South America, why has China bought 1.03 billion bushels of soybeans from the U.S. since November ? . . .
More Risk Than We Think . . . February 17, 2014
Unfortunately, the track record of USDA average farm price estimates in the monthly WASDE reports is not good, but the blame does not lie with USDA as much as it does with the fundamental economic approach that many of us were taught in school . . .
Problems With USDA Corn Estimates . . . January 30, 2014
. . . The method of taking USDA's monthly estimates and then translating those estimates into market prices based on the amount of supplies relative to demand seems like a reasonable approach -- almost scientific. The reality, however, is that there are two major hurdles that all producers should understand before using those price calculations to market their grain . . .
A New Wrench In The Soybean Market . . . January 17, 2014
. . . If a record South American soybean harvest is just months away, why does China continue to pay up for soybeans at a faster pace than USDA estimates can keep up with? . . .
How High Could Soybeans Go? . . . December 12, 2013
. . . With USDA estimating a U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio of 4.6% in its December 10 WASDE report, the chart suggests that the July soybean contract should trade at 40% above USDA's cost of production, or $14.07 a bushel, sometime between January 1 and June 25 . . .
The Value Of Vigilance . . . April 1, 2013
. . . One of the things that I like most about DTN's Six Factor Strategy is that it provides a meaningful structure for understanding today's markets without blinding ourselves to the challenges of a changing future. Yes, understanding the past is important, but the past is never the whole story -- there is no substitute for vigilance . . .
One of the benefits of having been around a while is that I can look back and see old articles that worked out well. Here is one good example that stood the test of time from March 21, 2004: Commodities Are King.